Vietnam GDP growth rebounds with oil & tourism surge

June 20, 2017 – After disappointing GDP growth in the first quarter of 5.15% YoY, Vietnam achieved a 6.17% YoY for the second quarter, taking the figure for the first half to 5.73% YoY. Sector-wise, solid growth continued to be seen in the manufacturing and construction sectors (+10.5% YoY and +8.5% YoY in 1H, respectively), but the mining sector was still weak (-8.2% YoY) due to low oil prices.

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Vietnam Asset Management VAM) believes there will be improvement in this sector in the second half if the Government’s proposal to increase crude oil production output this year by 1mn tons to 13.28mn tons is implemented. Meanwhile, other major macroeconomic data were encouraging, VAM says.

“Tourism, the new strategic growth driver, witnessed a significant jump in the number of international visitors in the first six months (over 6.2mn visitors, +30 YoY). This has put Vietnam in the top tourism-growth countries in the world,” VAM says.
Vietnam attracted increasing FDI flows YTD with total registered and disbursed amount of US$19.2bn (+54.8% YoY) and US$7.7bn (+6.5% YoY), respectively.

Both exports (+18.9% YoY) and imports (+24.1%) posted their strongest growth in recent years, while the YTD trade deficit came in at US$2.7bn.

Inflation was almost flat YTD, and credit growth is expected to accelerate in the second half to boost growth (Government target of 18% for FY2017), it adds. “The consensus forecast now points to 6.4-6.5% GDP growth for this year.” (ATI).

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